A Parody of the Perpetually “Almost-There” IPO Market
Since 2022, the global IPO market has been stuck in its unofficial “Do Not Disturb” phase—an extended holding pattern where every year gently reassures us with the same mantra: “Maybe next year… for real this time… okay, definitely maybe.”
The long shadow of the 2021 IPO boom left sky‑high expectations, but everything after has felt like someone hit snooze on the market alarm clock. Inflation? Check. Recession fears? Double check. Interest rates threatening to rise as high as Mount Everest? Absolutely. The 2022–2025 mood could best be summarized as: “Let’s just quietly back away.”
2024 tried to stage a comeback, but global IPO activity still lagged well behind pre‑pandemic era and the frenzy of 2021. Many high‑profile companies announced IPO plans, then backed out with “it looks cloudy.”
The phrase “next year will be better” became the IPO market’s version of “I’ll start my diet tomorrow.”
And yet, with all this uncertainty, some brave companies did make their public debuts and performed remarkably well. The market didn’t pause entirely—it just became very selective.
Reddit (NYSE: RDDT) stunned the market in 2024, debuting at $34 per share, and quickly became a standout, now trading near $135. ServiceTitan (Nasdaq: TTAN) raised $625 million in late 2024, pricing at $71 and closing its first day at $101, popping 42% and achieving the financial equivalent of a standing ovation. CoreWeave (Nasdaq: CRWV) rode the AI‑infrastructure wave straight through 2025, opening at $39 in March of last year and kept climbing to about $75 today, proving that “AI + literally anything = instant winner.” And there were others.
These standout IPOs showed today’s new formula:
- AI + Tech Leadership (bonus points if you can say “infrastructure” three times fast)
- Actual profitability — a concept once believed to be optional
- Disciplined pricing (translation: “We promise we’re not shooting for the moon this time…”)
- Management teams that look like they’ve been through a few things
As Q1 2026 closes, optimism slowly is rising again, but of course, the IPO window is fragile. It opens slowly… then slams shut at the first sign of turbulence. Now, a new geopolitical wildcard has surfaced — Iran. As if inflation, rates, tariff drama, shutdown threats, and AI‑driven chaos weren’t enough, companies may once again start saying, “Let’s maybe wait until things settle down. You know… maybe next year.” Which, at this point, might as well be the official slogan of the post‑pandemic IPO era.
Will 2026 finally be the year the IPO window stays open? Possibly, could be, or… maybe next year.
Judy Lin, jlin@pondel.com
